Suchergebnisse

This analysis aims at prediction of the political development in Afghanistan, especially the future of insurgency in this country and neighbouring Pakistani areas. Premises of this work are threefold: it is necessary to include Pakistan in the analysis of the insurgency, dimension of legitimacy is as important as military dimension when it comes to insurgency and that succesful negotiations with Taliban are currently impossible. At first, we describe geographical and demographical determinants influencing the conflict. After a brief historical excurse we shall continue with analysis of actors taking part in the insurgency. Doing this we should get an insight of the situation, which will be broadened by using Manwaring paradigm, which conceptualizes the main factors which have impact on the phenomenon of insurgency. These factors will be extrapolated - creating the first scenario of possible development, we will then add another two predictive scenarios. Main conclusion of the work is that despite possible increase in numbers of military personnel or even after boosting the legitimacy the insurgency will not fade away as it would require systematical effort in Pakistani neighbouring tribal belt.

The insurgency in the Niger Delta has wider consequence then just for Nigeria (rising oil price as most sounding examples), this article will try to conceptualize the most influential and dangerous contemporary group in the region - the Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta (MEND). This will be done from a pragmatic point of view, bearing in mind the consequences which labels such as terrorism evoke. The work aims for more than to conceptualize the group but also to propose a counter-insurgency or counter-terrorist strategy, these will be based on the understanding the MEND via the conceptualization.

The presented article aims to answer the question of what the future of militant Islamism in Somalia will look like after the defeat of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC). This will be done by analyzing the roots of this phenomenon. Operationalization is based on the violent non-state actor model, as defined by Thomas, Kiser & Casebeer. Next, the most important actors in contemporary Somalia regarding militant Islam will be presented. The Manwaring paradigm will be used to help us understand the success of the UIC. The findings will then be extrapolated into the future to resolve the original analytical question. Adapted from the source document.

The author aims to evaluate Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) with regard to another theoretical approach to security -- Network Actors Perspective (NAP). The evaluation will focus on how RSCT takes into account the influence of non-state actors on regional security dynamics & their growing deterritorialization. Firstly the regional level of analysis approach will be sketched, & the emphasis will lie on RSCT as defined by Barry Buzan & Ole Wcver. It's important characteristics & features will be critically compared with those of NAP. The result will be further illustrated through a case of a regional security complex -- the Horn of Africa. Adapted from the source document.

This paper argues that the contemporary state of the conceptualization of the non-state actor is no longer sufficient in the context of recent developments of non-state actors, and calls for a reconceptualization. We thus present the concept of the hybrid actor, that is, an actor which combines the features and activities of different traditional types of non-state actors. On the basis of the typological framework we can define it as the kind of actor which has both political and economic aims and at the same time a type of inner organization that is characterized by features of different kind of structures. The process of hybridization is, among other things, influenced by the possibility of transnationalization and cooperation with other actors. This kind of actor has specific characteristics to such an extent that it gives a reason for the creation of a new category of non-state actors. The process of the hybridization of the non-state actor, according to an analysis of contemporary salient trends, will rather grow in its volume, even more underscoring the importance of the reconceptualization. Adapted from the source document.